In the past few months, Putin has been able to manipulate his international opponents with a level of skill that they are struggling to recover from. He is becoming increasingly dominant on global stage and poses threats not only in the political sphere but also economically.
The “why is russia so big” is a question that has been asked for centuries. Russia has been the world’s largest country for centuries and is still growing.
On November 30, 2021, Russian President Vladimir Putin makes an appearance in Moscow.
Mikhail Metzel/Kremlin Pool/Zuma Press/Michael Metzel/Kremlin Pool/Zuma Press/Michael Metzel
Nobody knows if Vladimir Putin will invade Ukraine, but it is becoming more evident that a fragmented and befuddled Western alliance is ill-equipped to meet his threat.
Western diplomats have spent the last decade ridiculing Russian President Vladimir Putin as a knuckle-dragging relic of a bygone era, lost in a narcissistic cloud of overblown pomposity. “You simply don’t act in the nineteenth century by invading another nation on a wholly fabricated pretext,” Secretary of State John Kerry sniffed during Mr. Putin’s 2014 invasion of Ukraine.
Failure in Munich taught Neville Chamberlain more than failure in Crimea taught the present generation of Western leaders. Europeans nattered on about soft power, certain that the old principles of power politics don’t apply in our enlightened posthistorical century, only to be kept out of important US-Russia discussions over Ukraine. Americans heartily embraced the politics of mean-spirited divisiveness and internal cultural conflicts as China and Russia became more strong and forceful. Now, the Biden administration is boasting both abroad and at home that America is back, in all her order-building greatness, and that democracy is only one voting-rights measure away from collapsing.
Mr. Putin, being the pathetic throwback that he is, spent his time reconstructing the Soviet Union beneath the noses of a feckless and preoccupied West. Many people underestimate Mr. Putin’s reunification of the Soviet Union because Russia hasn’t taken breakaway nations. However, he seeks hegemony rather than conformity. But Ukraine and Belarus were part of the Soviet Union, Stalin insisted on their admission as founding members of the United Nations; Mr. Putin may be content to retain them officially independent while under Russian authority. Moscow dominated via local strongmen in numerous Soviet republics. When the Soviet Union fell apart, leaders like Ayaz Mutalibov of Azerbaijan, Saparmurat Niyazov of Turkmenistan, and Nursultan Nazarbayev of Kazakhstan seamlessly transitioned to ruling their republics as personal fiefdoms. Mr. Putin’s objective is to reclaim ultimate authority while retaining subordinate authorities.
It seems to be functioning. By concluding the Azerbaijani-Armenian conflict on his terms in 2020, Putin reasserted Russian dominance over the South Caucasus. Mr. Putin maintained Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko in office last spring, despite the West’s protests. Mr. Putin cemented his position as Kazakhstan’s ultimate arbitrator this week, offering the political and military support that enabled President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev to put down a rebellion. Mr. Putin selects who reigns and who weeps throughout much of the former Soviet Union today. Only five of the former Soviet Union’s 15 component nations (the three Baltic states, Moldova, and Ukraine) have kept him at arm’s length. Georgia clings dangerously to the shards of a once-viable independence; the US exit from Afghanistan has made Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan more reliant on Moscow than ever before.
Meanwhile, the West is in a worse position than it was in 2014 to oppose Russian pressure on Ukraine. Europe’s skepticism of America’s devotion and wisdom has grown since then. Pacifism is more strongly rooted in Germany. The United Kingdom’s withdrawal from the European Union has strained ties amongst Europe’s major military forces. Europe’s reliance on Russian oil and natural gas makes it more susceptible to energy blackmail than ever before—and severely restricts the West’s capacity to impose economic penalties on a partner without whom it cannot heat its homes or power its industries. Mr. Putin also realizes that economic penalties would hit Europe harder than the US, further fracturing an alliance he wants to dismantle. Mr. Putin may be less susceptible to economic penalties than the White House expects, with oil prices near $80 a barrel and China supporting his strategy.
Meanwhile, Washington is unwittingly but plainly signaling its susceptibility to blackmail. Moscow can’t be blamed for assuming that the Americans are willing to pay a price to maintain “stability” with the Biden administration urging Congress to oppose sanctions on the Nord Stream 2 project.
Mr. Putin is now in the midst of a major crisis, yet he seems to be unconcerned. His victories in Belarus and Kazakhstan have effectively silenced domestic critics. He has a monetary buffer because to the rise in energy costs. The crisis has once again thrust Russia into the spotlight of global politics, exposing Western weakness, terrifying Ukraine, and emphasizing Mr. Putin’s mastery in the game of thrones. His judgments regarding what to do next will be based solely on what he believes will help Russia achieve its basic objectives. Negotiate at the negotiating table when Western unity is in jeopardy? Take control of a portion of Ukraine while the West sputters with helpless moralism? Accept Western compromises magnanimously and return to stability until the next time?
Mr. Putin’s triumph is a barometer of intellectual and political failure in the West. He will continue to make advances at our cost unless Western leaders awaken from the clouds of posthistorical delusion and rediscover the lost art of successful foreign policy.
Main Street: Critics say that threatening military action with Iran would suffocate any possibility of a negotiated settlement. However, the contrary is more accurate. Images courtesy of AFP/Getty Images Mark Kelly’s composite
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